TPI Composites ($TPIC): The Green Energy Revolution’s Latest Roadkill
Another “Green” Investment That Likely Ends in Red
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The green energy revolution has a dirty secret—nobody’s making any real money building wind turbine blades. Just ask TPI Composites (“TPIC”), whose recently issued “green” convertible notes last traded at just 21 cents on the dollar.
Remember all those breathless headlines about the unstoppable growth of renewable energy? The government subsidies and tax credits and ESG funds throwing money at anything that promised to save the planet?
Well somebody forgot to tell TPIC’s shareholders, who’ve watched their stock crater from $78 in 2021 to under $2 as the company faces an impossible reality: your biggest customers also manufacture their own blades, and Chinese competitors sell at half your cost with three-year payment terms.
When GE and Vestas need extra capacity, they call TPIC. But when demand slows? Their factories keep running while TPIC’s sit idle. Margins are vanishing, debt has ballooned past $700 million, and management’s latest move speaks volumes—laying off 20% of their Turkish workforce right before Christmas. Reality just crashed into the renewable energy fantasy.
The company keeps talking about hitting $100 million in EBITDA by 2025. But after shuttering operations in Mexico and watching their European business implode, that forecast has about as much credibility as Zuckerberg’s commitment to free speech.
The IRA’s tax credits may save TPIC, or they may just delay the inevitable. But one thing’s clear—there’s a reason the graveyard of failed clean energy manufacturers keeps getting bigger. The question is whether TPIC has figured out how to avoid joining them...